It’s no secret that acceptance rates to elite universities have been on a steady downward trajectory for decades. But does this mean that it’s actually harder to get into a top school now than it was 10 or 20 years ago? Let’s take a look at acceptance rates across the top 25 schools from the U.S. News & World Report ranking. Below, we’ve pulled data from three admissions cycles spanning the last two decades: 2003, 2013, and 2023. 

Decreasing Admission Rates Across the Top Universities

School	2024 U.S. News Ranking	2003 Acceptance Rate	2013 Acceptance Rate	2023 Acceptance Rate
Princeton University	#1	10%	7.30%	4.50%
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	#2	17.04%	8.90%	4.80%
Harvard University	#3	9.80%	5.80%	3.41%
Stanford University	#3	12.63%	5.69%	3.90%
Yale University	#5	11.40%	6.70%	4.35%
University of Pennsylvania	#6	20.50%	12.10%	6%
California Institute of Technology	#7	15.30%	10.55%	3.10%
Duke University	#7	N/A	11.58%	7.80%
Brown University	#9	14.90%	9.20%	5.08%
Johns Hopkins University	#9	29.70%	16.81%	6.50%
Northwestern University	#9	33.10%	14%	7%
Columbia University	#12	12%	6.90%	3.93%
Cornell University	#12	30.90%	15.20%	8%
University of Chicago	#12	39%	8.81%	5.92%
University of California, Berkeley	#15	25.30%	20.83%	11.60%
University of California, Los Angeles	#15	23%	20.10%	9%
Rice University	#17	23.40%	16.60%	7.90%
Dartmouth College	#18	17.70%	10%	6.07%
Vanderbilt University	#18	40%	12%	5.60%
University of Notre Dame	#20	N/A	23.30%	12%
University of Michigan — Ann Arbor	#21	53.20%	33.30%	18%
Georgetown University	#22	20.80%	17%	12.80%
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill	#22	N/A	25.30%	17.00%
Carnegie Mellon University	#24	38%	25.50%	11%
Emory University	#24	27%	26%	10.30%
University of Virginia	#24	35%	30%	19%
Washington University in St. Louis	#24	20%	15%	12%
AVERAGES:		24%	15.35%	8.39%

The Data Doesn’t Lie: Elite College Acceptance Rates are Shooting Downward

As this chart plainly indicates, contemporary acceptance rates are at an all-time low, making 2003 acceptance rates look like a walk in the park. However, the statistics alone don’t say much about the relative change in competitiveness at these institutions. The lower acceptance rate at Harvard in 2013 compared to 2003 could have, hypothetically, been the result of an influx of mediocre applicants trying their luck at admission at the time. The further decrease from 2013 to 2023 could have, hypothetically, resulted from a widespread campaign on behalf of Harvard to drive up applications (Harvard’s pandemic era test-optional policy also contributed).

This is not an either-or situation. Highly selective colleges have drawn a greater number of applications in recent years from those who never had a shot at admission, which has, in itself, increased the desirability of these schools and caused even more students to apply, all while the average competitiveness of admitted students has increased in absolute terms. It’s a feedback loop, to be sure, one that these schools are intent upon perpetuating for the sake of driving down acceptance rates and driving up prestige. Artificial scarcity increases demand. That’s basic economics!

Accounting for the effect of underqualified students inflating applicant pools, the 2023 acceptance rates would look slightly higher. Still, it’s certainly true that it’s harder to get into a top school today than it was ten years ago, and ten years ago it was harder than twenty years ago. This phenomenon is reflected in steadily rising test scores, academic track records, and qualitative assessments of admitted students. What’s more, the Ivy Coach crystal ball tells us that these rates will only continue to dwindle and eventually plateau, indicating that elite American universities have reached a saturation point around the globe and that the greatest proportion of high schoolers possible are applying each year. 

Until that point is reached, acceptance rates will continue on a tangent line towards 0%, and the stock price of an elite education will continue to soar through the roof!